by Will Forbes
The headline
from Genel’s trading statement this morning is perhaps the downward revision of
the 2015 production guidance from 90-100mbopd to 85-90mbopd and revenue
guidance narrowing at the bottom of the range (was $350-400m, now $350-375m)
assuming $50/bbl crude.
Following
GKP’s recent receipt of payments for production, Genel expect $24.5m in the
short term, which we hope will be a further step towards reliable payments from
the KRG for production. As with all KRG-focussed producers, Genel is
restricting its investment until it sees returns from existing production, and
the sooner that payments (and back payments) for production are received the
more quickly Kurdistan will see further increases in capacity.
Importantly,
the export volumes from Kurdistan continue to increase, with news yesterday (Bloomberg)
that exports could be running at 656mbopd (from 564mbopd in September). Even
with oil prices where they are, these kind of volumes give us hope that the KRG
can afford to pay its contractors.
Elsewhere,
the gas project is continuing with ING appointed as mid-stream debt adviser,
Genel will be participating in the Aigle well (Cote D’Ivoire), and the
completion of Taq Taq’s second central processing facility (90bopd) is on track
for end-2015.
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